Why Stock Futures Are Falling: $107 Oil and Fed Hike Fears
U.S. stock futures slide as Brent tops $107 after a Saudi pipeline attack and hot CPI lifts Fed hike odds to 86%. What is driving the selloff.
Inflation
Coverage and education about inflation data, price pressures, real yields, and monetary-policy implications. Articles explain what each measure captures and link to the underlying official release.
Homebuilder Stocks Near 52-Week Lows as 10Y Hits 4.95%
Homebuilder stocks sit near 52-week lows as the 10-year Treasury climbs to 4.95% and the 30-year mortgage hits 6.76% ahead of the September FOMC.
How to Read the CPI Report: A Beginner’s Guide
A step-by-step walkthrough of the monthly BLS CPI release: headline vs core, MoM vs YoY, SA vs NSA, category weights, and how to avoid common misreadings.
After Hot CPI, Real Yields Rose but Breakevens Fell
The 10-year pushed near 5% after August CPI, but breakevens fell. Real yields did the work — a bond-market vote of confidence in the Fed.
Diesel Shock: Fuel Squeeze Looms Over Airlines, Truckers
Diesel hit $5.97/gal and PPI diesel jumped 24.1% in August. Airlines and truckers head into Q3 with a rebuilt fuel-cost problem.
How Social Security COLA Is Calculated: The CPI-W Formula
How SSA turns the CPI-W into next year’s Social Security raise: the Q3 formula, the no-cut rule, and when the number lands.
2027 Social Security COLA Tracks 3.5% After Hot August CPI
TSCL projects a 3.5% 2027 Social Security COLA after Aug CPI-W ran at 3.5% YoY, with capital-markets implications for Treasury issuance.
August CPI Runs Hot on Gasoline; Core Cools to 2.4%
August CPI headline hit 0.4% MoM (3.4% YoY) on a 3.9% gasoline surge, but core cooled to 2.4% YoY. Bond market barely moved; futures rallied.
The 4% Rule Explained: Bengen, Trinity, and Reality
What the 4% rule is, where it came from, the math, the assumptions that do the work, and where it breaks down.
August PPI Hot: 0.4% M/M, 5.4% Y/Y on Diesel Jump
August 2026 PPI rose 0.4% m/m and 5.4% y/y as diesel jumped 24.1%. Re-accelerating wholesale prices lifted 10-year Treasury yields toward 5%.