May PCE Hits 4.1%, Highest Since 2023; Hike Odds Jump to 68%
Headline PCE jumped to 4.1% YoY in May, core to 3.4%. September rate-hike odds surged to ~68% from 29% a week ago as Treasury yields wobbled.
Inflation
The Yield Curve Explained: Shape, Inversion, and What It Signals
What the Treasury yield curve is, why its shape matters, how inversions have historically preceded U.S. recessions, and how to read it.
30-Year Treasury Auction Clears at 4.84% as Demand Returns
Treasury sold $22B of 30-year bonds at 4.844% Thursday with a 2.43 bid-to-cover — average demand, a quiet rebound from May’s first-above-5% scare.
CAPE Ratio Explained: When Stocks Are Truly Expensive
Shiller PE sits near 41, second only to the 1999 peak. What CAPE measures, when it works, when it misleads, with verified historical data.
CPI vs PCE: Why the Fed Targets PCE Inflation
CPI vs PCE explained: how the two US inflation gauges differ in scope, weights, and formula, and why the Fed’s 2% target rides on core PCE.
TIPS Explained: How Inflation-Protected Treasuries Work
How Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities work — principal adjustment, real yield, breakeven inflation, taxes, and where TIPS fit in a portfolio.
IMF Slashes 2026 Growth Outlook: What Capital Markets Must Now Price In
The IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook delivers a stark growth downgrade. Here’s how bond, equity, and sovereign debt markets are responding.