July CPI Cools to 3.4%: Stocks Shrug, Fed Cut Path Clears
July 2026 CPI came in at 3.4% headline and 2.5% core, matching forecasts. Stocks nudged higher, yields dipped, and the September FOMC cut looks live.
Inflation
Apple Falls 7% as Cook Warns of Memory Chip ‘100-Year Flood’
Apple stock slid 7.35% Friday after CEO Tim Cook called soaring memory chip prices a ‘100-year flood.’ Nvidia reclaimed the most-valuable-company crown.
Warsh’s Second FOMC: Bonds Brace as Inflation Runs Hot
Kevin Warsh’s second FOMC meeting begins today with the fed funds rate at 3.50-3.75% and PCE at 4.1%. Here is what bond investors are watching.
May PCE Hits 4.1%, Highest Since 2023; Hike Odds Jump to 68%
Headline PCE jumped to 4.1% YoY in May, core to 3.4%. September rate-hike odds surged to ~68% from 29% a week ago as Treasury yields wobbled.
The Yield Curve Explained: Shape, Inversion, and What It Signals
What the Treasury yield curve is, why its shape matters, how inversions have historically preceded U.S. recessions, and how to read it.
30-Year Treasury Auction Clears at 4.84% as Demand Returns
Treasury sold $22B of 30-year bonds at 4.844% Thursday with a 2.43 bid-to-cover — average demand, a quiet rebound from May’s first-above-5% scare.
CAPE Ratio Explained: When Stocks Are Truly Expensive
Shiller PE sits near 41, second only to the 1999 peak. What CAPE measures, when it works, when it misleads, with verified historical data.
CPI vs PCE: Why the Fed Targets PCE Inflation
CPI vs PCE explained: how the two US inflation gauges differ in scope, weights, and formula, and why the Fed’s 2% target rides on core PCE.
TIPS Explained: How Inflation-Protected Treasuries Work
How Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities work — principal adjustment, real yield, breakeven inflation, taxes, and where TIPS fit in a portfolio.
IMF Slashes 2026 Growth Outlook: What Capital Markets Must Now Price In
The IMF’s April 2026 World Economic Outlook delivers a stark growth downgrade. Here’s how bond, equity, and sovereign debt markets are responding.