May PCE Hits 4.1%, Highest Since 2023; Hike Odds Jump to 68%
Headline PCE jumped to 4.1% YoY in May, core to 3.4%. September rate-hike odds surged to ~68% from 29% a week ago as Treasury yields wobbled.
treasury yields
Yield Curve Explained: Shapes, Inversion, Recession Signal
What the Treasury yield curve is, what each shape means, and why inversion has preceded every U.S. recession since the late 1960s.
Bond Duration and Convexity Explained: Why Prices Fall
Duration tells you how much a bond’s price moves when yields shift 1%. Convexity tells you how much duration is lying. Formulas, example, traps.
30-Year Yield Near 5% as Fed Holds and Hike Bets Rise
The 30-year Treasury yield is at 4.94% as the Fed holds at 3.50-3.75% and nine officials pencil in 2026 rate hikes. What it means for markets.
The Yield Curve Explained: Shape, Inversion, and What It Signals
What the Treasury yield curve is, why its shape matters, how inversions have historically preceded U.S. recessions, and how to read it.
Bond Duration and Convexity: How Prices Move with Yields
Duration measures bond price sensitivity to yield changes; convexity corrects the curve. Formulas, a worked example, and a snapshot table.
Treasury Yields Jump as Warsh’s Dot Plot Pencils a 2026 Hike
The Fed held rates 12-0 but its new dot plot now sees fed funds at 3.8% by year-end, above the current 3.5-3.75% band – a hawkish first move under Chair Warsh.
Treasury’s Coupon Storm Hits Right After Warsh’s First FOMC
Treasury sells $24B in 5-year notes hours after the Fed decides June 17, then a 2y/5y/7y trio Jun 23-25 — ~$200B of supply in seven days.
FOMC June Preview: Warsh’s First Dot Plot, Cuts in Play
The June 16-17 FOMC is Kevin Warsh’s first meeting with a fresh Summary of Economic Projections. Here’s what bond and credit markets are pricing.
30-Year Treasury Auction Clears at 4.84% as Demand Returns
Treasury sold $22B of 30-year bonds at 4.844% Thursday with a 2.43 bid-to-cover — average demand, a quiet rebound from May’s first-above-5% scare.