Warsh’s Second FOMC: Bonds Brace as Inflation Runs Hot
Kevin Warsh’s second FOMC meeting begins today with the fed funds rate at 3.50-3.75% and PCE at 4.1%. Here is what bond investors are watching.
federal reserve
The Yield Curve: Shape, Inversion, and What It Predicts
How the U.S. Treasury yield curve works, why its shape matters, what inversion has and hasn’t predicted, and how to read today’s curve.
Fed’s Post-QT Pivot: +$275B Treasuries, -$191B MBS YoY
Six months after the Fed ended balance sheet runoff, its portfolio shows a clean pivot: Treasury holdings up $275B YoY, agency MBS down $191B.
30-Year Yield Near 5% as Fed Holds and Hike Bets Rise
The 30-year Treasury yield is at 4.94% as the Fed holds at 3.50-3.75% and nine officials pencil in 2026 rate hikes. What it means for markets.
Fed Proposes Bank-Style ID Rules for Stablecoin Issuers
Fed, FinCEN, OCC, FDIC and NCUA propose a bank-style customer ID rule for stablecoin issuers under the GENIUS Act — directly affecting T-bill demand.
The Yield Curve Explained: Shape, Inversion, and What It Signals
What the Treasury yield curve is, why its shape matters, how inversions have historically preceded U.S. recessions, and how to read it.
Term Premium Explained: Why Long Bonds Yield Extra
Term premium is the extra yield bonds pay beyond expected short rates. Here’s how the NY Fed measures it and what’s pushing it higher in 2026.
172k Jobs, $1T Wiped: Nasdaq’s Worst Week in a Year
A hot May payrolls print pushed Fed rate cuts off the table and triggered a 10.4% single-day SOXX collapse, dragging Nasdaq to its worst week in a year.
The Repo Market Explained: $12.6 Trillion of Plumbing
How the repo market works: $12.6T daily, SOFR, tri-party clearing, the Fed’s Standing Repo Facility, and the 2019 spike that changed everything.
Repo and Reverse Repo Explained: How Funding Plumbing Works
How the repo market actually works — collateral, haircuts, SOFR, the Fed’s ON RRP, and why the $2.5T overnight RRP facility drained to almost zero in 2026.