Homebuilder Stocks Near 52-Week Lows as 10Y Hits 4.95%
Homebuilder stocks sit near 52-week lows as the 10-year Treasury climbs to 4.95% and the 30-year mortgage hits 6.76% ahead of the September FOMC.
federal reserve
2027 Social Security COLA Tracks 3.5% After Hot August CPI
TSCL projects a 3.5% 2027 Social Security COLA after Aug CPI-W ran at 3.5% YoY, with capital-markets implications for Treasury issuance.
How Mortgage Rates Are Set: 10-Year Treasury + Spread
30-year mortgage rates aren’t tied to the Fed’s rate. They track the 10-year Treasury plus a mortgage spread. Here’s how the math works.
10-Year Treasury Hits 4.95%: S&P 500 Slides for 4th Day
The 10-year yield jumped 12 bp to 4.95% Sept. 10, its highest since Oct 2023, as the S&P 500 fell 0.58% for a fourth straight day ahead of Thursday’s CPI.
Jobs Blowout: 162K Hires Force Fed Rate-Hike Bets Back
US employers added 162,000 jobs in August, more than double consensus. Treasury yields ripped and September rate-cut bets flipped to potential hikes.
SOFR Explained: How the Post-LIBOR Benchmark Actually Works
SOFR replaced LIBOR as the reference for trillions in dollar debt. Here is how it is calculated, what moves it, and why September 2019 still matters.
Repo and Reverse Repo Explained: The Plumbing of Rates
How the US repo market really works: repo vs reverse repo, SOFR, the Fed’s RRP floor and SRF ceiling, and what broke in September 2019.
Warsh at Jackson Hole: 10-Year Jumps to 4.67% on Hawkish Turn
Chairman Warsh called inflation the Fed’s ‘predominant focus’ at Jackson Hole 2026, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.67% and shrinking near-term rate-cut bets.
Yield Curve Inversion Explained: The Recession Signal
Why an inverted yield curve preceded every US recession since 1969, what the 10Y-2Y and 10Y-3M spreads measure, and the 2022 inversion that broke the pattern.
What Is Jackson Hole? The Fed Retreat That Moves Markets
Every August, top central bankers gather in Wyoming. Here is why one Fed Chair speech from Jackson Hole can reset bond yields, stocks, and the dollar.