Yield Curve Inversion Explained: The Recession Signal
Why an inverted yield curve preceded every US recession since 1969, what the 10Y-2Y and 10Y-3M spreads measure, and the 2022 inversion that broke the pattern.
bond market
Yankee, Samurai, Kangaroo: Foreign Bonds Explained
Yankee, Samurai, Kangaroo, Panda, Dim Sum — a field guide to foreign-currency bonds: what each is, where it trades, who regulates it, and why issuers use them.
Bond Market Undoes Treasury’s Buyback Fix in 48 Hours
Bessent’s doubled long-end buybacks pulled the 10Y from 4.72% to 4.65% in a session. More than half the rally was gone by the next close.
Treasury Doubles Long-End Bond Buybacks to $4B Per Op
Treasury will at least double liquidity-support buybacks in the 10-30Y sector to $4B per operation starting Sept 9. Bessent signals more could come.
US Debt Crosses $40 Trillion: Every $1T in 5 Months
US public debt topped $40 trillion on Aug 18, 2026, per Treasury. The last two trillion arrived in about five months each.
Global 30Y Yields Surge: US 5.31%, UK 5.83%, Japan 4.13%
Long-dated sovereign yields hit multi-year highs across the US, UK, Germany, and Japan in mid-August 2026 as buyers demand more term premium.
IG Bond Buyers Yank 36% of Orders as Supply Overwhelms
US investment-grade bond issuance is on a record 2026 pace, but buyers pulled 36% of orders this week after pricing was squeezed — twice the prior week.
Bear Steepener Alert: 30-Year Yield Hits 5.17%, Curve Widens
The 30-year Treasury yield touched 5.17% on July 23, a multi-year high, and the curve steepened sharply after the July FOMC. Here is what is driving it.
Warsh’s Second FOMC: Bonds Brace as Inflation Runs Hot
Kevin Warsh’s second FOMC meeting begins today with the fed funds rate at 3.50-3.75% and PCE at 4.1%. Here is what bond investors are watching.
The Yield Curve: Shape, Inversion, and What It Predicts
How the U.S. Treasury yield curve works, why its shape matters, what inversion has and hasn’t predicted, and how to read today’s curve.