Bear Steepener Alert: 30-Year Yield Hits 5.17%, Curve Widens
The 30-year Treasury yield touched 5.17% on July 23, a multi-year high, and the curve steepened sharply after the July FOMC. Here is what is driving it.
bond market
Warsh’s Second FOMC: Bonds Brace as Inflation Runs Hot
Kevin Warsh’s second FOMC meeting begins today with the fed funds rate at 3.50-3.75% and PCE at 4.1%. Here is what bond investors are watching.
The Yield Curve: Shape, Inversion, and What It Predicts
How the U.S. Treasury yield curve works, why its shape matters, what inversion has and hasn’t predicted, and how to read today’s curve.
Yield Curve Explained: Shapes, Inversion, Recession Signal
What the Treasury yield curve is, what each shape means, and why inversion has preceded every U.S. recession since the late 1960s.
AI Capex Drives US Corporate Bonds Past Record Pace in 2026
US corporate bond issuance hit $1.23T through May 2026 as hyperscalers tap the market to fund AI capex on a historic scale.
Treasury Yields Jump as Warsh’s Dot Plot Pencils a 2026 Hike
The Fed held rates 12-0 but its new dot plot now sees fed funds at 3.8% by year-end, above the current 3.5-3.75% band – a hawkish first move under Chair Warsh.
Treasury’s Coupon Storm Hits Right After Warsh’s First FOMC
Treasury sells $24B in 5-year notes hours after the Fed decides June 17, then a 2y/5y/7y trio Jun 23-25 — ~$200B of supply in seven days.
30-Year Treasury Auction Clears at 4.84% as Demand Returns
Treasury sold $22B of 30-year bonds at 4.844% Thursday with a 2.43 bid-to-cover — average demand, a quiet rebound from May’s first-above-5% scare.
Yield Curve Explained: What Inversion Really Means
What the yield curve is, why inversion has preceded every US recession since 1970, and how to read the current US Treasury curve as of June 1, 2026.
2-Year Treasury Tests 4.10% as Markets Erase 2026 Fed Cuts
The US 2-year Treasury yield is near a 52-week high at 4.07% as traders price out Fed rate cuts for the rest of 2026.