August CPI Runs Hot on Gasoline; Core Cools to 2.4%
August CPI headline hit 0.4% MoM (3.4% YoY) on a 3.9% gasoline surge, but core cooled to 2.4% YoY. Bond market barely moved; futures rallied.
August CPI headline hit 0.4% MoM (3.4% YoY) on a 3.9% gasoline surge, but core cooled to 2.4% YoY. Bond market barely moved; futures rallied.
Fed funds futures let traders bet on the path of the overnight rate. Here is how the contract works, and how CME FedWatch turns prices into cut probabilities.
July 2026 CPI came in at 3.4% headline and 2.5% core, matching forecasts. Stocks nudged higher, yields dipped, and the September FOMC cut looks live.
April 2026 CPI data drops Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Analysts expect inflation to hit 3.7%—the highest since September 2023—driven by Iran-related energy costs and tariff pass-throughs.