The Yield Curve: Shape, Inversion, and What It Predicts
How the U.S. Treasury yield curve works, why its shape matters, what inversion has and hasn’t predicted, and how to read today’s curve.
treasury yields
May PCE Hits 4.1%, Highest Since 2023; Hike Odds Jump to 68%
Headline PCE jumped to 4.1% YoY in May, core to 3.4%. September rate-hike odds surged to ~68% from 29% a week ago as Treasury yields wobbled.
Yield Curve Explained: Shapes, Inversion, Recession Signal
What the Treasury yield curve is, what each shape means, and why inversion has preceded every U.S. recession since the late 1960s.
Bond Duration and Convexity Explained: Why Prices Fall
Duration tells you how much a bond’s price moves when yields shift 1%. Convexity tells you how much duration is lying. Formulas, example, traps.
30-Year Yield Near 5% as Fed Holds and Hike Bets Rise
The 30-year Treasury yield is at 4.94% as the Fed holds at 3.50-3.75% and nine officials pencil in 2026 rate hikes. What it means for markets.
The Yield Curve Explained: Shape, Inversion, and What It Signals
What the Treasury yield curve is, why its shape matters, how inversions have historically preceded U.S. recessions, and how to read it.
Bond Duration and Convexity: How Prices Move with Yields
Duration measures bond price sensitivity to yield changes; convexity corrects the curve. Formulas, a worked example, and a snapshot table.
Treasury Yields Jump as Warsh’s Dot Plot Pencils a 2026 Hike
The Fed held rates 12-0 but its new dot plot now sees fed funds at 3.8% by year-end, above the current 3.5-3.75% band – a hawkish first move under Chair Warsh.
Treasury’s Coupon Storm Hits Right After Warsh’s First FOMC
Treasury sells $24B in 5-year notes hours after the Fed decides June 17, then a 2y/5y/7y trio Jun 23-25 — ~$200B of supply in seven days.
FOMC June Preview: Warsh’s First Dot Plot, Cuts in Play
The June 16-17 FOMC is Kevin Warsh’s first meeting with a fresh Summary of Economic Projections. Here’s what bond and credit markets are pricing.