Tariff Revenue Down 30%: The Bond Market Math That Matters
U.S. tariff collections fell $4B in March alone and are now down 30% since October. Here’s what that means for the federal deficit and Treasury yields.
treasury yields
March PPI Cools: What It Means for Fed Rates and Bonds
March 2026 PPI rose just 0.5% vs 1.1% expected. Here’s what the wholesale inflation surprise means for Fed policy and bond markets.
Rate Cuts Delayed to 2027: What It Means for Bond Markets
The Fed’s Goolsbee signals rate cuts may wait until 2027 as March PPI hits a 3-year high. Here’s what the pause means for bonds and borrowing costs.
Fed Rate-Cut Odds Hit 40% as Iran Peace Talks Ease Oil Fears
Money markets repriced Fed rate-cut odds from below 10% to 40% as US-Iran peace talk optimism sent oil prices lower. Here is what bond investors need to know.
The Tariff Revenue Slump: A Warning Signal for Bond Markets
US tariff revenue fell 30% since October to $22 billion in March. Here’s what the shortfall means for the deficit, Treasury supply, and bond yields.
Kevin Warsh’s Fed Chair Bid Stalls — Markets Take Notice
Kevin Warsh’s expected Fed Chair confirmation hearing has been delayed. Here’s what the nomination snag means for bonds, the dollar, and equities.
China’s Factory Deflation Ends: What It Means for Bond Markets
China’s factory prices turned positive for the first time in 3 years, driven by surging oil. Here’s what that global shift means for bonds and Fed policy.
The Equity Risk Premium Has Nearly Vanished in 2026
With Treasury yields at 4.3% and stocks trading at 21x earnings, the equity risk premium has compressed to near zero. Here’s what that means.
The Fed’s Next Move Could Be a Rate Hike, Not a Cut
Traders now see a Fed rate hike as more likely than a cut. Here’s what Treasury yields, FedWatch data, and bond markets are pricing in for 2026.
The Dollar Is Falling. What Capital Markets Are Telling Us.
The DXY is sliding as Iran ceasefire unwinds safe-haven trades. Here’s what dollar weakness means for bonds, commodities, emerging markets, and equities.