September FOMC Preview: Three Hawks Meet Friday’s Jobs Report
Fed dot plot lands Sept 15-16 with three July dissenters wanting hikes and the 30-year at 5.27%. Friday’s jobs report is the last read before the vote.
treasury yields
Warsh at Jackson Hole: 10-Year Jumps to 4.67% on Hawkish Turn
Chairman Warsh called inflation the Fed’s ‘predominant focus’ at Jackson Hole 2026, pushing the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.67% and shrinking near-term rate-cut bets.
Yield Curve Inversion Explained: The Recession Signal
Why an inverted yield curve preceded every US recession since 1969, what the 10Y-2Y and 10Y-3M spreads measure, and the 2022 inversion that broke the pattern.
Bond Market Undoes Treasury’s Buyback Fix in 48 Hours
Bessent’s doubled long-end buybacks pulled the 10Y from 4.72% to 4.65% in a session. More than half the rally was gone by the next close.
Global 30Y Yields Surge: US 5.31%, UK 5.83%, Japan 4.13%
Long-dated sovereign yields hit multi-year highs across the US, UK, Germany, and Japan in mid-August 2026 as buyers demand more term premium.
Chip Stocks -5% as Bond Yields Bite: MU -7%, AMD -4%
Semiconductors led a tech rout Aug 18 as the 10-year yield sat near 4.72%. Micron -7%, AMD -4.3%, SOX -4.98% — while Apple and Microsoft actually rose.
US Borrows $432B in July; FY26 Deficit Already Tops FY25
July’s $432B deficit pushes FY26 borrowing past $1.8T in 10 months — more than all of FY25 — as tariff refunds bleed receipts and debt nears $40T.
Payrolls Shrink in July: -23,000 Jobs, Rate-Cut Bets Surge
US payrolls unexpectedly contracted by 23,000 in July vs consensus of +85,000. Unemployment eased to 4.1% as bonds rallied and September rate-cut odds jumped.
Bear Steepener Alert: 30-Year Yield Hits 5.17%, Curve Widens
The 30-year Treasury yield touched 5.17% on July 23, a multi-year high, and the curve steepened sharply after the July FOMC. Here is what is driving it.
Warsh’s Second FOMC: Bonds Brace as Inflation Runs Hot
Kevin Warsh’s second FOMC meeting begins today with the fed funds rate at 3.50-3.75% and PCE at 4.1%. Here is what bond investors are watching.