US Borrows $432B in July; FY26 Deficit Already Tops FY25
July’s $432B deficit pushes FY26 borrowing past $1.8T in 10 months — more than all of FY25 — as tariff refunds bleed receipts and debt nears $40T.
treasury yields
Payrolls Shrink in July: -23,000 Jobs, Rate-Cut Bets Surge
US payrolls unexpectedly contracted by 23,000 in July vs consensus of +85,000. Unemployment eased to 4.1% as bonds rallied and September rate-cut odds jumped.
Bear Steepener Alert: 30-Year Yield Hits 5.17%, Curve Widens
The 30-year Treasury yield touched 5.17% on July 23, a multi-year high, and the curve steepened sharply after the July FOMC. Here is what is driving it.
Warsh’s Second FOMC: Bonds Brace as Inflation Runs Hot
Kevin Warsh’s second FOMC meeting begins today with the fed funds rate at 3.50-3.75% and PCE at 4.1%. Here is what bond investors are watching.
The Yield Curve: Shape, Inversion, and What It Predicts
How the U.S. Treasury yield curve works, why its shape matters, what inversion has and hasn’t predicted, and how to read today’s curve.
May PCE Hits 4.1%, Highest Since 2023; Hike Odds Jump to 68%
Headline PCE jumped to 4.1% YoY in May, core to 3.4%. September rate-hike odds surged to ~68% from 29% a week ago as Treasury yields wobbled.
Yield Curve Explained: Shapes, Inversion, Recession Signal
What the Treasury yield curve is, what each shape means, and why inversion has preceded every U.S. recession since the late 1960s.
Bond Duration and Convexity Explained: Why Prices Fall
Duration tells you how much a bond’s price moves when yields shift 1%. Convexity tells you how much duration is lying. Formulas, example, traps.
30-Year Yield Near 5% as Fed Holds and Hike Bets Rise
The 30-year Treasury yield is at 4.94% as the Fed holds at 3.50-3.75% and nine officials pencil in 2026 rate hikes. What it means for markets.
The Yield Curve Explained: Shape, Inversion, and What It Signals
What the Treasury yield curve is, why its shape matters, how inversions have historically preceded U.S. recessions, and how to read it.