The Yield Curve Explained: Shape, Inversion, and What It Signals
What the Treasury yield curve is, why its shape matters, how inversions have historically preceded U.S. recessions, and how to read it.
treasury yields
Bond Duration and Convexity: How Prices Move with Yields
Duration measures bond price sensitivity to yield changes; convexity corrects the curve. Formulas, a worked example, and a snapshot table.
Treasury Yields Jump as Warsh’s Dot Plot Pencils a 2026 Hike
The Fed held rates 12-0 but its new dot plot now sees fed funds at 3.8% by year-end, above the current 3.5-3.75% band – a hawkish first move under Chair Warsh.
Treasury’s Coupon Storm Hits Right After Warsh’s First FOMC
Treasury sells $24B in 5-year notes hours after the Fed decides June 17, then a 2y/5y/7y trio Jun 23-25 — ~$200B of supply in seven days.
FOMC June Preview: Warsh’s First Dot Plot, Cuts in Play
The June 16-17 FOMC is Kevin Warsh’s first meeting with a fresh Summary of Economic Projections. Here’s what bond and credit markets are pricing.
30-Year Treasury Auction Clears at 4.84% as Demand Returns
Treasury sold $22B of 30-year bonds at 4.844% Thursday with a 2.43 bid-to-cover — average demand, a quiet rebound from May’s first-above-5% scare.
Term Premium Explained: Why Long Bonds Yield Extra
Term premium is the extra yield bonds pay beyond expected short rates. Here’s how the NY Fed measures it and what’s pushing it higher in 2026.
Kevin Warsh Inherits a Split FOMC and 4.97% Long Bond
Kevin Warsh took the oath as Fed chair on May 22, 2026, inheriting an 8-4 FOMC and a 30-year Treasury near 5%. June 16-17 is his first meeting.
Yield Curve Explained: What Inversion Really Means
What the yield curve is, why inversion has preceded every US recession since 1970, and how to read the current US Treasury curve as of June 1, 2026.
2-Year Treasury Tests 4.10% as Markets Erase 2026 Fed Cuts
The US 2-year Treasury yield is near a 52-week high at 4.07% as traders price out Fed rate cuts for the rest of 2026.