The Equity Risk Premium Has Nearly Vanished in 2026
With Treasury yields at 4.3% and stocks trading at 21x earnings, the equity risk premium has compressed to near zero. Here’s what that means.
treasury yields
The Fed’s Next Move Could Be a Rate Hike, Not a Cut
Traders now see a Fed rate hike as more likely than a cut. Here’s what Treasury yields, FedWatch data, and bond markets are pricing in for 2026.
The Dollar Is Falling. What Capital Markets Are Telling Us.
The DXY is sliding as Iran ceasefire unwinds safe-haven trades. Here’s what dollar weakness means for bonds, commodities, emerging markets, and equities.
March Jobs Report: Strong Payrolls Hold Treasury Yields Steady
March’s stronger-than-expected payrolls kept Treasury yields firm, pushing back rate cut timelines as the Fed navigates oil-driven inflation.
Fed Rate Cuts Return: What the Bond Market Is Pricing In
Iran ceasefire and solid March jobs data have revived rate cut hopes. Here’s how the bond market is repricing the Fed’s path in 2026.
The Market Bottom Isn’t About Iran. It’s About the Fed.
Everyone’s watching the Strait of Hormuz. The market’s real signal is hiding in the bond market. Here’s what actually tells you when stocks have found a floor.
Stocks Had a Good Week. The Bond Market Isn’t Convinced.
Macroeconomic trends are driving equity and bond markets in unexpected directions. Here’s a clear-eyed analysis of what the data shows for investors thi…