How to Read the CPI Report: A Beginner’s Guide
A step-by-step walkthrough of the monthly BLS CPI release: headline vs core, MoM vs YoY, SA vs NSA, category weights, and how to avoid common misreadings.
After Hot CPI, Real Yields Rose but Breakevens Fell
The 10-year pushed near 5% after August CPI, but breakevens fell. Real yields did the work — a bond-market vote of confidence in the Fed.
Diesel Shock: Fuel Squeeze Looms Over Airlines, Truckers
Diesel hit $5.97/gal and PPI diesel jumped 24.1% in August. Airlines and truckers head into Q3 with a rebuilt fuel-cost problem.
How Social Security COLA Is Calculated: The CPI-W Formula
How SSA turns the CPI-W into next year’s Social Security raise: the Q3 formula, the no-cut rule, and when the number lands.
2027 Social Security COLA Tracks 3.5% After Hot August CPI
TSCL projects a 3.5% 2027 Social Security COLA after Aug CPI-W ran at 3.5% YoY, with capital-markets implications for Treasury issuance.
August CPI Runs Hot on Gasoline; Core Cools to 2.4%
August CPI headline hit 0.4% MoM (3.4% YoY) on a 3.9% gasoline surge, but core cooled to 2.4% YoY. Bond market barely moved; futures rallied.
The 4% Rule Explained: Bengen, Trinity, and Reality
What the 4% rule is, where it came from, the math, the assumptions that do the work, and where it breaks down.
August PPI Hot: 0.4% M/M, 5.4% Y/Y on Diesel Jump
August 2026 PPI rose 0.4% m/m and 5.4% y/y as diesel jumped 24.1%. Re-accelerating wholesale prices lifted 10-year Treasury yields toward 5%.
Why Adobe Stock Is Falling After Record Q3 Earnings
Adobe reported record Q3 revenue of $6.76B and announced a CEO transition, but shares fell after net new ARR dropped 36% on a freemium acquisition pivot.
How Mortgage Rates Are Set: 10-Year Treasury + Spread
30-year mortgage rates aren’t tied to the Fed’s rate. They track the 10-year Treasury plus a mortgage spread. Here’s how the math works.