Fed Hikes Rates to 4.00%: Bond Yields and Dot Plot Reaction
The Federal Reserve raised its policy rate 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00% in a 12-0 vote, lifting 2026 dot plot forecasts to 4.1% as Treasury yields hover near 5%.
10 year treasury yield
Fed Funds vs. 10-Year Treasury: Why Long-Term Rates Diverge
Why do 10-year Treasury yields move opposite to Fed rate cuts? Learn how the Fed sets overnight rates while markets price inflation, growth, and term premium.
After Hot CPI, Real Yields Rose but Breakevens Fell
The 10-year pushed near 5% after August CPI, but breakevens fell. Real yields did the work — a bond-market vote of confidence in the Fed.
August PPI Hot: 0.4% M/M, 5.4% Y/Y on Diesel Jump
August 2026 PPI rose 0.4% m/m and 5.4% y/y as diesel jumped 24.1%. Re-accelerating wholesale prices lifted 10-year Treasury yields toward 5%.