The Yield Curve Explained: What It Signals About the Economy
What the U.S. Treasury yield curve is, how to read it, what inversion means, and why every recession since 1955 was preceded by one.
Economy & Macro
Explore inflation, employment, growth and other economic developments that shape financial markets. Find context for economic releases and explanations of commonly used indicators. Find your way around ECMSource.
Tariff Refund Portal Opens: $166B in Duties Up for Reclaim
CBP has launched a $166B tariff refund portal for disputed duties. Here’s what American importers, logistics giants, and investors need to know.
Stagflation 2026: The Warning Signs Capital Markets Can’t Ignore
Sticky 3.3% inflation, oil price shocks, and a Fed frozen on rate cuts are reviving stagflation fears not seen since the 1970s. Here’s what capital markets are signaling.
China’s Q1 2026 GDP Surprise: The Divergence Trade Taking Shape
China’s economy grew 5% in Q1 2026, beating 4.8% forecasts as Western markets face Iran-driven energy shocks and record-low consumer confidence. Here’s what it means for global capital markets.
US Tariff Refund Portal: $127B Back to Importers April 20
The US launches a tariff refund portal on April 20, returning $127B to American importers — and reshaping trade finance in 2026.
Consumer Confidence Hits an All-Time Low: What UMich’s 47.6 Reading Means for Capital Markets
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index plunged to a historic 47.6 in April 2026 — the worst reading ever recorded. Here is what it signals for bond markets, equity sectors, and Fed policy.
IMF Slashes 2026 Growth Forecasts: What Markets Need to Know
The IMF’s April 2026 WEO cuts global growth projections and raises inflation to 4.4%. What it means for bonds, equities, and the Fed.
Stagflation Warning: Hot CPI Meets Record-Low Consumer Sentiment
U.S. CPI surged 3.3% annually in March 2026—its biggest monthly jump since 2022—while consumer sentiment crashed to an all-time low of 47.6. Here’s what the double bind means for markets.
Tariff Revenue Down 30%: The Bond Market Math That Matters
U.S. tariff collections fell $4B in March alone and are now down 30% since October. Here’s what that means for the federal deficit and Treasury yields.
IMF Slashes Global Growth Outlook: Capital Markets on Alert
The IMF has cut its 2026 global growth outlook amid the Iran energy crisis, sticky inflation, and US-China tariffs. Here’s what capital markets need to watch.