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Economy & Macro

Explore inflation, employment, growth and other economic developments that shape financial markets. Find context for economic releases and explanations of commonly used indicators. Find your way around ECMSource.

Stagflation Warning: Hot CPI Meets Record-Low Consumer Sentiment

October 27, 2026April 15, 2026 by Bruno M.

U.S. CPI surged 3.3% annually in March 2026—its biggest monthly jump since 2022—while consumer sentiment crashed to an all-time low of 47.6. Here’s what the double bind means for markets.

Categories Economy & Macro Tags capital markets, consumer sentiment, economic outlook, federal reserve, inflation, stagflation

Tariff Revenue Down 30%: The Bond Market Math That Matters

October 27, 2026April 14, 2026 by Bruno M.

U.S. tariff collections fell $4B in March alone and are now down 30% since October. Here’s what that means for the federal deficit and Treasury yields.

Categories Economy & Macro Tags bond markets, capital markets, federal deficit, tariffs, treasury yields

IMF Slashes Global Growth Outlook: Capital Markets on Alert

October 27, 2026April 14, 2026 by Bruno M.
IMF Slashes Global Growth Outlook: Capital Markets on Alert

The IMF has cut its 2026 global growth outlook amid the Iran energy crisis, sticky inflation, and US-China tariffs. Here’s what capital markets need to watch.

Categories Economy & Macro Tags bond markets, capital markets, emerging markets, global growth, IMF, inflation

Consumer Confidence Hits Record Low: Iran Energy Shock

October 27, 2026April 14, 2026 by Bruno M.
Consumer Confidence Hits Record Low: Iran Energy Shock

US consumer confidence hit a record low in April 2026 as the Iran energy shock drives CPI to 3.3% and stagflation fears deepen across markets.

Categories Economy & Macro Tags capital markets, consumer confidence, energy crisis, federal reserve, Iran war, stagflation

Fannie Mae’s Crypto Mortgage: A Capital Markets Watershed

October 27, 2026April 9, 2026 by Bruno M.
Fannie Mae’s Crypto Mortgage: A Capital Markets Watershed

Fannie Mae has accepted the first crypto-backed mortgage product, a landmark step that could reshape housing finance and open new capital markets territory.

Categories Economy & Macro Tags capital markets, cryptocurrency, Fannie Mae, housing finance, mortgage

The Dollar Is Falling. What Capital Markets Are Telling Us.

October 27, 2026April 9, 2026 by Bruno M.
The Dollar Is Falling. What Capital Markets Are Telling Us.

The DXY is sliding as Iran ceasefire unwinds safe-haven trades. Here’s what dollar weakness means for bonds, commodities, emerging markets, and equities.

Categories Economy & Macro Tags capital markets, currency markets, dollar index, emerging markets, global economy, treasury yields

Tariff Fog: Why Wall Street Can’t Price the S&P 500

October 27, 2026April 9, 2026 by Bruno M.
Tariff Fog: Why Wall Street Can’t Price the S&P 500

When tariff policy can reverse overnight, S&P 500 valuation becomes guesswork. Here’s how Wall Street is trying — and failing — to price it in.

Categories Economy & Macro Tags earnings, market volatility, stock market, tariffs

Private Credit’s $2 Trillion Stress Test

October 27, 2026April 9, 2026 by Bruno M.
Private Credit’s $2 Trillion Stress Test

Blue Owl’s redemption cap signals the first real cracks in private credit. Here’s what it means for borrowers, banks, and the $2 trillion market.

Categories Economy & Macro Tags capital markets, credit markets, direct lending, private credit, Wall Street
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