Tariff Revenue Down 30%: The Bond Market Math That Matters
U.S. tariff collections fell $4B in March alone and are now down 30% since October. Here’s what that means for the federal deficit and Treasury yields.
Economy & Macro
IMF Slashes Global Growth Outlook: Capital Markets on Alert
The IMF has cut its 2026 global growth outlook amid the Iran energy crisis, sticky inflation, and US-China tariffs. Here’s what capital markets need to watch.
Consumer Confidence Hits Record Low: Iran Energy Shock
US consumer confidence hit a record low in April 2026 as the Iran energy shock drives CPI to 3.3% and stagflation fears deepen across markets.
Fannie Mae’s Crypto Mortgage: A Capital Markets Watershed
Fannie Mae has accepted the first crypto-backed mortgage product, a landmark step that could reshape housing finance and open new capital markets territory.
The Dollar Is Falling. What Capital Markets Are Telling Us.
The DXY is sliding as Iran ceasefire unwinds safe-haven trades. Here’s what dollar weakness means for bonds, commodities, emerging markets, and equities.
Tariff Fog: Why Wall Street Can’t Price the S&P 500
When tariff policy can reverse overnight, S&P 500 valuation becomes guesswork. Here’s how Wall Street is trying — and failing — to price it in.
Private Credit’s $2 Trillion Stress Test
Blue Owl’s redemption cap signals the first real cracks in private credit. Here’s what it means for borrowers, banks, and the $2 trillion market.