April CPI Rises to 3.7%, Pushing Bond Yields Higher as Fed Cuts Fade
April CPI surged to 3.7% year-over-year, sending the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.41% and dimming hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026.
bond markets
China’s Q1 2026 GDP Surprise: The Divergence Trade Taking Shape
China’s economy grew 5% in Q1 2026, beating 4.8% forecasts as Western markets face Iran-driven energy shocks and record-low consumer confidence. Here’s what it means for global capital markets.
Consumer Confidence Hits an All-Time Low: What UMich’s 47.6 Reading Means for Capital Markets
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index plunged to a historic 47.6 in April 2026 — the worst reading ever recorded. Here is what it signals for bond markets, equity sectors, and Fed policy.
IMF Slashes 2026 Growth Forecasts: What Markets Need to Know
The IMF’s April 2026 WEO cuts global growth projections and raises inflation to 4.4%. What it means for bonds, equities, and the Fed.
Tariff Revenue Down 30%: The Bond Market Math That Matters
U.S. tariff collections fell $4B in March alone and are now down 30% since October. Here’s what that means for the federal deficit and Treasury yields.
Stocks and Bonds Send a Rare Recession Warning in 2026
A rare alignment of stock and bond market warning signals — mirroring patterns seen before every U.S. recession since 1970 — is putting capital markets on edge.
Fed Rate-Cut Odds Hit 40% as Iran Peace Talks Ease Oil Fears
Money markets repriced Fed rate-cut odds from below 10% to 40% as US-Iran peace talk optimism sent oil prices lower. Here is what bond investors need to know.
IMF Slashes Global Growth Outlook: Capital Markets on Alert
The IMF has cut its 2026 global growth outlook amid the Iran energy crisis, sticky inflation, and US-China tariffs. Here’s what capital markets need to watch.
The Tariff Revenue Slump: A Warning Signal for Bond Markets
US tariff revenue fell 30% since October to $22 billion in March. Here’s what the shortfall means for the deficit, Treasury supply, and bond yields.
China’s Factory Deflation Ends: What It Means for Bond Markets
China’s factory prices turned positive for the first time in 3 years, driven by surging oil. Here’s what that global shift means for bonds and Fed policy.