Fed Rate-Cut Odds Hit 40% as Iran Peace Talks Ease Oil Fears
Money markets repriced Fed rate-cut odds from below 10% to 40% as US-Iran peace talk optimism sent oil prices lower. Here is what bond investors need to know.
treasury yields
The Tariff Revenue Slump: A Warning Signal for Bond Markets
US tariff revenue fell 30% since October to $22 billion in March. Here’s what the shortfall means for the deficit, Treasury supply, and bond yields.
Kevin Warsh’s Fed Chair Bid Stalls — Markets Take Notice
Kevin Warsh’s expected Fed Chair confirmation hearing has been delayed. Here’s what the nomination snag means for bonds, the dollar, and equities.
China’s Factory Deflation Ends: What It Means for Bond Markets
China’s factory prices turned positive for the first time in 3 years, driven by surging oil. Here’s what that global shift means for bonds and Fed policy.
The Equity Risk Premium Has Nearly Vanished in 2026
With Treasury yields at 4.3% and stocks trading at 21x earnings, the equity risk premium has compressed to near zero. Here’s what that means.
The Fed’s Next Move Could Be a Rate Hike, Not a Cut
Traders now see a Fed rate hike as more likely than a cut. Here’s what Treasury yields, FedWatch data, and bond markets are pricing in for 2026.
The Dollar Is Falling. What Capital Markets Are Telling Us.
The DXY is sliding as Iran ceasefire unwinds safe-haven trades. Here’s what dollar weakness means for bonds, commodities, emerging markets, and equities.
March Jobs Report: Strong Payrolls Hold Treasury Yields Steady
March’s stronger-than-expected payrolls kept Treasury yields firm, pushing back rate cut timelines as the Fed navigates oil-driven inflation.
Fed Rate Cuts Return: What the Bond Market Is Pricing In
Iran ceasefire and solid March jobs data have revived rate cut hopes. Here’s how the bond market is repricing the Fed’s path in 2026.
The Market Bottom Isn’t About Iran. It’s About the Fed.
Everyone’s watching the Strait of Hormuz. The market’s real signal is hiding in the bond market. Here’s what actually tells you when stocks have found a floor.