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federal reserve

Stagflation Warning: Hot CPI Meets Record-Low Consumer Sentiment

June 6, 2026April 15, 2026 by Bruno

U.S. CPI surged 3.3% annually in March 2026—its biggest monthly jump since 2022—while consumer sentiment crashed to an all-time low of 47.6. Here’s what the double bind means for markets.

Categories Economy & Macro Tags capital markets, consumer sentiment, economic outlook, federal reserve, inflation, stagflation Leave a comment

March PPI Cools: What It Means for Fed Rates and Bonds

June 6, 2026April 14, 2026 by Bruno

March 2026 PPI rose just 0.5% vs 1.1% expected. Here’s what the wholesale inflation surprise means for Fed policy and bond markets.

Categories Federal Reserve & Rates Tags bonds, capital markets, federal reserve, inflation, interest rates, PPI, treasury yields Leave a comment

Kevin Warsh at the Fed: What Markets Need to Know Before April 21

May 11, 2026April 14, 2026 by Bruno

Trump’s Fed chair pick Kevin Warsh faces a Senate confirmation hearing April 21. Here’s what his hawkish track record means for rates, bonds, and equities.

Categories Federal Reserve & Rates Tags bonds, capital markets, federal reserve, interest rates, Kevin Warsh, monetary policy Leave a comment

Rate Cuts Delayed to 2027: What It Means for Bond Markets

June 6, 2026April 14, 2026 by Bruno

The Fed’s Goolsbee signals rate cuts may wait until 2027 as March PPI hits a 3-year high. Here’s what the pause means for bonds and borrowing costs.

Categories Federal Reserve & Rates Tags bonds, capital markets, federal reserve, interest rates, treasury yields Leave a comment

Stocks and Bonds Send a Rare Recession Warning in 2026

June 6, 2026April 14, 2026 by Bruno

A rare alignment of stock and bond market warning signals — mirroring patterns seen before every U.S. recession since 1970 — is putting capital markets on edge.

Categories Stock Market Tags bond markets, capital markets, federal reserve, recession, stock market, yield curve Leave a comment

Fed Rate-Cut Odds Hit 40% as Iran Peace Talks Ease Oil Fears

June 6, 2026April 14, 2026 by Bruno

Money markets repriced Fed rate-cut odds from below 10% to 40% as US-Iran peace talk optimism sent oil prices lower. Here is what bond investors need to know.

Categories Federal Reserve & Rates Tags bond markets, capital markets, federal reserve, interest rates, oil prices, treasury yields Leave a comment

Consumer Confidence Hits Record Low: Iran Energy Shock

May 11, 2026April 14, 2026 by Bruno

US consumer confidence hit a record low in April 2026 as the Iran energy shock drives CPI to 3.3% and stagflation fears deepen across markets.

Categories Economy & Macro Tags capital markets, consumer confidence, energy crisis, federal reserve, Iran war, stagflation Leave a comment

April CPI Surges 3.3%: What It Means for Rates and Stocks

May 11, 2026April 13, 2026 by Bruno

April CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year with a 0.9% monthly spike—biggest jump since 2022. What it means for the Fed, bonds, and equities.

Categories Federal Reserve & Rates Tags bonds, capital markets, federal reserve, inflation, interest rates, stock market Leave a comment

Wage Growth Divide Hits Decade High: Capital Markets Take Note

April 12, 2026 by Bruno

Wage growth inequality is at its widest since 2015. Here’s what the widening divide means for consumer credit, retail, and capital markets.

Categories Stock Market Tags capital markets, consumer credit, federal reserve, income inequality, retail stocks, wage growth Leave a comment

March CPI Cools More Than Expected, Reigniting Rate Cut Bets

April 11, 2026April 10, 2026 by Bruno

March 2026 CPI data came in below forecasts, sending bond yields lower and reviving expectations for Fed rate cuts later this year.

Categories Stock Market Tags bond market, capital markets, CPI, federal reserve, inflation Leave a comment
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