The Mortgage Lock-In Effect: Why Millions Won’t Move
Over half of U.S. homeowners hold COVID-era mortgages at sub-4% rates. How this lock-in is reshaping housing supply, MBS markets, and Fed policy in 2026.
federal reserve
The Next Fed Chair: What Capital Markets Face After Powell
Jerome Powell’s term ends May 15, 2026. With 30 days left, capital markets are weighing what comes next for interest rates, bonds, and the dollar.
Foreign Investors Are Selling US Treasuries: What It Means for 2026
Foreign holdings of US Treasuries are declining as trade tensions escalate. Here’s what’s driving the selloff and what it means for yields, the dollar, and American borrowers.
Consumer Confidence Hits an All-Time Low: What UMich’s 47.6 Reading Means for Capital Markets
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index plunged to a historic 47.6 in April 2026 — the worst reading ever recorded. Here is what it signals for bond markets, equity sectors, and Fed policy.
IMF Slashes 2026 Growth Forecasts: What Markets Need to Know
The IMF’s April 2026 WEO cuts global growth projections and raises inflation to 4.4%. What it means for bonds, equities, and the Fed.
Stagflation Warning: Hot CPI Meets Record-Low Consumer Sentiment
U.S. CPI surged 3.3% annually in March 2026—its biggest monthly jump since 2022—while consumer sentiment crashed to an all-time low of 47.6. Here’s what the double bind means for markets.
March PPI Cools: What It Means for Fed Rates and Bonds
March 2026 PPI rose just 0.5% vs 1.1% expected. Here’s what the wholesale inflation surprise means for Fed policy and bond markets.
Kevin Warsh at the Fed: What Markets Need to Know Before April 21
Trump’s Fed chair pick Kevin Warsh faces a Senate confirmation hearing April 21. Here’s what his hawkish track record means for rates, bonds, and equities.
Rate Cuts Delayed to 2027: What It Means for Bond Markets
The Fed’s Goolsbee signals rate cuts may wait until 2027 as March PPI hits a 3-year high. Here’s what the pause means for bonds and borrowing costs.
Stocks and Bonds Send a Rare Recession Warning in 2026
A rare alignment of stock and bond market warning signals — mirroring patterns seen before every U.S. recession since 1970 — is putting capital markets on edge.