The Equity Risk Premium Has Nearly Vanished in 2026
With Treasury yields at 4.3% and stocks trading at 21x earnings, the equity risk premium has compressed to near zero. Here’s what that means.
capital markets
Fannie Mae’s Crypto Mortgage: A Capital Markets Watershed
Fannie Mae has accepted the first crypto-backed mortgage product, a landmark step that could reshape housing finance and open new capital markets territory.
The Fed’s Next Move Could Be a Rate Hike, Not a Cut
Traders now see a Fed rate hike as more likely than a cut. Here’s what Treasury yields, FedWatch data, and bond markets are pricing in for 2026.
Brent Crude at $120: Implications for Inflation and the Fed
Brent crude topped $120 as the US-Iran ceasefire shows cracks. What a sustained oil shock means for inflation, Fed rate cuts, and global markets.
The Dollar Is Falling. What Capital Markets Are Telling Us.
The DXY is sliding as Iran ceasefire unwinds safe-haven trades. Here’s what dollar weakness means for bonds, commodities, emerging markets, and equities.
Private Credit’s $2 Trillion Stress Test
Blue Owl’s redemption cap signals the first real cracks in private credit. Here’s what it means for borrowers, banks, and the $2 trillion market.
March Jobs Report: Strong Payrolls Hold Treasury Yields Steady
March’s stronger-than-expected payrolls kept Treasury yields firm, pushing back rate cut timelines as the Fed navigates oil-driven inflation.
Polymarket’s Iran Bets Raise Prediction Market Reckoning
Newly created Polymarket accounts placed big ceasefire bets hours before Trump’s announcement. Are prediction markets becoming a haven for insider trading?
AI Mega-IPOs: OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI Eye 2026 Listings
OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI are all signaling public market debuts in 2026. Here’s what the mega-IPO wave means for equity capital markets and investors.
Fed Minutes: Rate Cut Still on Table Despite Iran War Inflation
April FOMC minutes reveal Fed officials still expect a rate cut in 2026, even as the Iran war keeps Brent crude above $120 and stokes inflation fears.