Fed Rate-Cut Odds Hit 40% as Iran Peace Talks Ease Oil Fears
Money markets repriced Fed rate-cut odds from below 10% to 40% as US-Iran peace talk optimism sent oil prices lower. Here is what bond investors need to know.
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Consumer Confidence Hits Record Low: Iran Energy Shock
US consumer confidence hit a record low in April 2026 as the Iran energy shock drives CPI to 3.3% and stagflation fears deepen across markets.
April CPI Surges 3.3%: What It Means for Rates and Stocks
April CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year with a 0.9% monthly spike—biggest jump since 2022. What it means for the Fed, bonds, and equities.
Wage Growth Divide Hits Decade High: Capital Markets Take Note
Wage growth inequality is at its widest since 2015. Here’s what the widening divide means for consumer credit, retail, and capital markets.
March CPI Cools More Than Expected, Reigniting Rate Cut Bets
March 2026 CPI data came in below forecasts, sending bond yields lower and reviving expectations for Fed rate cuts later this year.
Kevin Warsh’s Fed Chair Bid Stalls — Markets Take Notice
Kevin Warsh’s expected Fed Chair confirmation hearing has been delayed. Here’s what the nomination snag means for bonds, the dollar, and equities.
The Fed’s Next Move Could Be a Rate Hike, Not a Cut
Traders now see a Fed rate hike as more likely than a cut. Here’s what Treasury yields, FedWatch data, and bond markets are pricing in for 2026.
Brent Crude at $120: Implications for Inflation and the Fed
Brent crude topped $120 as the US-Iran ceasefire shows cracks. What a sustained oil shock means for inflation, Fed rate cuts, and global markets.
March Jobs Report: Strong Payrolls Hold Treasury Yields Steady
March’s stronger-than-expected payrolls kept Treasury yields firm, pushing back rate cut timelines as the Fed navigates oil-driven inflation.
Fed Minutes: Rate Cut Still on Table Despite Iran War Inflation
April FOMC minutes reveal Fed officials still expect a rate cut in 2026, even as the Iran war keeps Brent crude above $120 and stokes inflation fears.