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federal reserve

Stagflation Warning: Hot CPI Meets Record-Low Consumer Sentiment

September 12, 2026April 15, 2026 by Bruno M.

U.S. CPI surged 3.3% annually in March 2026—its biggest monthly jump since 2022—while consumer sentiment crashed to an all-time low of 47.6. Here’s what the double bind means for markets.

Categories Economy & Macro Tags capital markets, consumer sentiment, economic outlook, federal reserve, inflation, stagflation

March PPI Cools: What It Means for Fed Rates and Bonds

September 12, 2026April 14, 2026 by Bruno M.

March 2026 PPI rose just 0.5% vs 1.1% expected. Here’s what the wholesale inflation surprise means for Fed policy and bond markets.

Categories Federal Reserve & Rates Tags bonds, capital markets, federal reserve, inflation, interest rates, PPI, treasury yields

Kevin Warsh at the Fed: What Markets Need to Know Before April 21

September 12, 2026April 14, 2026 by Bruno M.

Trump’s Fed chair pick Kevin Warsh faces a Senate confirmation hearing April 21. Here’s what his hawkish track record means for rates, bonds, and equities.

Categories Federal Reserve & Rates Tags bonds, capital markets, federal reserve, interest rates, Kevin Warsh, monetary policy

Rate Cuts Delayed to 2027: What It Means for Bond Markets

September 12, 2026April 14, 2026 by Bruno M.
Rate Cuts Delayed to 2027: What It Means for Bond Markets

The Fed’s Goolsbee signals rate cuts may wait until 2027 as March PPI hits a 3-year high. Here’s what the pause means for bonds and borrowing costs.

Categories Federal Reserve & Rates Tags bonds, capital markets, federal reserve, interest rates, treasury yields

Stocks and Bonds Send a Rare Recession Warning in 2026

September 12, 2026April 14, 2026 by Bruno M.
Stocks and Bonds Send a Rare Recession Warning in 2026

A rare alignment of stock and bond market warning signals — mirroring patterns seen before every U.S. recession since 1970 — is putting capital markets on edge.

Categories Stock Market Tags bond markets, capital markets, federal reserve, recession, stock market, yield curve

Fed Rate-Cut Odds Hit 40% as Iran Peace Talks Ease Oil Fears

September 12, 2026April 14, 2026 by Bruno M.
Fed Rate-Cut Odds Hit 40% as Iran Peace Talks Ease Oil Fears

Money markets repriced Fed rate-cut odds from below 10% to 40% as US-Iran peace talk optimism sent oil prices lower. Here is what bond investors need to know.

Categories Federal Reserve & Rates Tags bond markets, capital markets, federal reserve, interest rates, oil prices, treasury yields

Consumer Confidence Hits Record Low: Iran Energy Shock

September 12, 2026April 14, 2026 by Bruno M.
Consumer Confidence Hits Record Low: Iran Energy Shock

US consumer confidence hit a record low in April 2026 as the Iran energy shock drives CPI to 3.3% and stagflation fears deepen across markets.

Categories Economy & Macro Tags capital markets, consumer confidence, energy crisis, federal reserve, Iran war, stagflation

April CPI Surges 3.3%: What It Means for Rates and Stocks

September 12, 2026April 13, 2026 by Bruno M.

April CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year with a 0.9% monthly spike—biggest jump since 2022. What it means for the Fed, bonds, and equities.

Categories Federal Reserve & Rates Tags bonds, capital markets, federal reserve, inflation, interest rates, stock market

Wage Growth Divide Hits Decade High: Capital Markets Take Note

September 12, 2026April 12, 2026 by Bruno M.
Wage Growth Divide Hits Decade High: Capital Markets Take Note

Wage growth inequality is at its widest since 2015. Here’s what the widening divide means for consumer credit, retail, and capital markets.

Categories Stock Market Tags capital markets, consumer credit, federal reserve, income inequality, retail stocks, wage growth

March CPI Cools More Than Expected, Reigniting Rate Cut Bets

September 12, 2026April 10, 2026 by Bruno M.

March 2026 CPI data came in below forecasts, sending bond yields lower and reviving expectations for Fed rate cuts later this year.

Categories Stock Market Tags bond market, capital markets, CPI, federal reserve, inflation
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