The Mortgage Lock-In Effect: Why Millions Won’t Move
Over half of U.S. homeowners hold COVID-era mortgages at sub-4% rates. How this lock-in is reshaping housing supply, MBS markets, and Fed policy in 2026.
fixed income
Foreign Investors Are Selling US Treasuries: What It Means for 2026
Foreign holdings of US Treasuries are declining as trade tensions escalate. Here’s what’s driving the selloff and what it means for yields, the dollar, and American borrowers.
Private Credit at $2 Trillion: The New Face of Corporate Lending
How private credit crossed $2 trillion in AUM—and why corporations are choosing direct lenders over banks in 2026.
The Tariff Revenue Slump: A Warning Signal for Bond Markets
US tariff revenue fell 30% since October to $22 billion in March. Here’s what the shortfall means for the deficit, Treasury supply, and bond yields.
The Equity Risk Premium Has Nearly Vanished in 2026
With Treasury yields at 4.3% and stocks trading at 21x earnings, the equity risk premium has compressed to near zero. Here’s what that means.