Yield Curve Explained: Shapes, Inversion, Recession Signal
What the Treasury yield curve is, what each shape means, and why inversion has preceded every U.S. recession since the late 1960s.
bond market
AI Capex Drives US Corporate Bonds Past Record Pace in 2026
US corporate bond issuance hit $1.23T through May 2026 as hyperscalers tap the market to fund AI capex on a historic scale.
Treasury Yields Jump as Warsh’s Dot Plot Pencils a 2026 Hike
The Fed held rates 12-0 but its new dot plot now sees fed funds at 3.8% by year-end, above the current 3.5-3.75% band – a hawkish first move under Chair Warsh.
Treasury’s Coupon Storm Hits Right After Warsh’s First FOMC
Treasury sells $24B in 5-year notes hours after the Fed decides June 17, then a 2y/5y/7y trio Jun 23-25 — ~$200B of supply in seven days.
30-Year Treasury Auction Clears at 4.84% as Demand Returns
Treasury sold $22B of 30-year bonds at 4.844% Thursday with a 2.43 bid-to-cover — average demand, a quiet rebound from May’s first-above-5% scare.
Yield Curve Explained: What Inversion Really Means
What the yield curve is, why inversion has preceded every US recession since 1970, and how to read the current US Treasury curve as of June 1, 2026.
2-Year Treasury Tests 4.10% as Markets Erase 2026 Fed Cuts
The US 2-year Treasury yield is near a 52-week high at 4.07% as traders price out Fed rate cuts for the rest of 2026.
How Treasury Auctions Work: Bid-to-Cover and Tails
How the U.S. Treasury actually raises money: single-price auctions, competitive vs noncompetitive bids, primary dealers, and what tails reveal.
Municipal Bonds Explained: GO vs Revenue and the Tax Angle
Plain-English guide to municipal bonds: GO vs revenue, how the federal tax exemption changes your real yield, and why munis default less than corporates.
Yield Curve Explained: Shapes, Forces, and Inversion
A plain-English guide to the Treasury yield curve: what it is, the four shapes, why it can invert, and what each shape says about the economy.