The Fed’s Next Move Could Be a Rate Hike, Not a Cut
Traders now see a Fed rate hike as more likely than a cut. Here’s what Treasury yields, FedWatch data, and bond markets are pricing in for 2026.
Brent Crude at $120: Implications for Inflation and the Fed
Brent crude topped $120 as the US-Iran ceasefire shows cracks. What a sustained oil shock means for inflation, Fed rate cuts, and global markets.
The Dollar Is Falling. What Capital Markets Are Telling Us.
The DXY is sliding as Iran ceasefire unwinds safe-haven trades. Here’s what dollar weakness means for bonds, commodities, emerging markets, and equities.
Tariff Fog: Why Wall Street Can’t Price the S&P 500
When tariff policy can reverse overnight, S&P 500 valuation becomes guesswork. Here’s how Wall Street is trying — and failing — to price it in.
Private Credit’s $2 Trillion Stress Test
Blue Owl’s redemption cap signals the first real cracks in private credit. Here’s what it means for borrowers, banks, and the $2 trillion market.
Sell in May: What Six Decades of Data Actually Show
The “Sell in May and Go Away” pattern is real but imperfect. Here is what six decades of S&P 500 data, academic research, and 2026 market conditions actually reveal.
March Jobs Report: Strong Payrolls Hold Treasury Yields Steady
March’s stronger-than-expected payrolls kept Treasury yields firm, pushing back rate cut timelines as the Fed navigates oil-driven inflation.
Polymarket’s Iran Bets Raise Prediction Market Reckoning
Newly created Polymarket accounts placed big ceasefire bets hours before Trump’s announcement. Are prediction markets becoming a haven for insider trading?
AI Mega-IPOs: OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI Eye 2026 Listings
OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI are all signaling public market debuts in 2026. Here’s what the mega-IPO wave means for equity capital markets and investors.
Fed Minutes: Rate Cut Still on Table Despite Iran War Inflation
April FOMC minutes reveal Fed officials still expect a rate cut in 2026, even as the Iran war keeps Brent crude above $120 and stokes inflation fears.