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Federal Reserve & Rates

Follow Federal Reserve decisions, interest rates and monetary policy. Explore what changes in short-term rates and bond yields mean, with links to original releases and market explainers. Find your way around ECMSource.

30-Year Treasury Near 5%: The Forces Keeping U.S. Borrowing Costs High

September 12, 2026May 1, 2026 by Bruno M.
30-Year Treasury Near 5%: The Forces Keeping U.S. Borrowing Costs High

The 30-year Treasury yield stands at 4.987% on April 30, 2026 — nearly 5% — as term premium surges on sticky inflation, rising supply, and fading foreign demand for US debt.

Categories Federal Reserve & Rates Tags bonds, capital markets, federal reserve, interest rates, treasury yields

Fed Holds at 3.50–3.75%: Bond Markets Navigate a 16-Month Rate Pause

September 12, 2026April 29, 2026 by Bruno M.
Fed Holds at 3.50–3.75%: Bond Markets Navigate a 16-Month Rate Pause

The FOMC’s April 29 decision leaves the federal funds rate unchanged for a 16th consecutive month, as Treasury yields hold firm and corporate borrowers weigh their next move.

Categories Federal Reserve & Rates Tags bond market, capital markets, corporate bonds, federal reserve rate hold, fomc april 2026, treasury yields 2026

US Treasury’s $10T Rollover: Weak Demand and Rising Yields

September 12, 2026April 26, 2026 by Bruno M.
US Treasury’s $10T Rollover: Weak Demand and Rising Yields

The US must roll over ~$10 trillion in Treasury debt in 2026 at yields far higher than original issue. What auction data and foreign holder trends reveal.

Categories Federal Reserve & Rates, Market Trend Tags bond market, capital markets, federal debt, treasury bonds, treasury yields, us debt rollover

Kevin Warsh’s Fed Chair Path: Bond Markets Brace for Shift

September 12, 2026April 26, 2026 by Bruno M.
Kevin Warsh’s Fed Chair Path: Bond Markets Brace for Shift

Senate Banking Committee votes this week on Kevin Warsh’s Fed nomination. Bond markets are already pricing a hawkish shift — here’s what capital markets are watching.

Categories Federal Reserve & Rates, Stock Market Tags bond market, capital markets, federal reserve, Kevin Warsh, monetary policy, treasury yields

30-Year Treasury Near 5%: The Forces Keeping U.S. Borrowing Costs High

September 17, 2026April 25, 2026 by Bruno M.
30-Year Treasury Near 5%: The Forces Keeping U.S. Borrowing Costs High

The 30-year Treasury hovers near 5% as foreign buyers pull back, Iran’s Strait of Hormuz crisis adds volatility, and the term premium makes a structural comeback. Here’s what it means for every borrower.

Categories Federal Reserve & Rates, Stock Market Tags bonds, capital markets, federal reserve, interest rates, treasury yields

Kevin Warsh Fed Nomination: What It Signals for Rates and Bonds

October 27, 2026April 20, 2026 by Bruno M.

Kevin Warsh’s Senate confirmation hearing sent measured signals through bond markets and rate desks. Here’s what his nomination means for monetary policy, Treasury yields, and credit markets.

Categories Federal Reserve & Rates Tags bond market, capital markets, federal reserve, interest rates, monetary policy, treasury yields

IMF Warns U.S. Debt Is Eroding the Treasury Safe-Haven Premium

October 27, 2026April 20, 2026 by Bruno M.

The IMF says runaway U.S. debt is eliminating the traditional safety premium on Treasury bonds — and the implications stretch far beyond fixed income.

Categories Federal Reserve & Rates Tags capital markets, fixed income, IMF, sovereign debt, treasury bonds, US debt

Utilities’ $770B Bond Issuance Wave Powers the AI Grid Buildout

October 27, 2026April 19, 2026 by Bruno M.

U.S. utilities are planning $1.4 trillion in capex to power AI data centers — and financing it means a $770B bond issuance wave that will reshape investment-grade credit markets.

Categories Federal Reserve & Rates Tags AI infrastructure, bonds, capital markets, corporate debt, credit markets, utilities

The AI Hiring Freeze: What the Fed’s Beige Book Reveals

October 27, 2026April 17, 2026 by Bruno M.

Fed’s Beige Book reveals AI productivity is shrinking corporate hiring — what it means for rate policy, bond markets, and equity valuations.

Categories Federal Reserve & Rates Tags AI economy, bonds, capital markets, federal reserve, labor market, monetary policy, productivity

The Mortgage Lock-In Effect: Why Millions Won’t Move

October 27, 2026April 15, 2026 by Bruno M.

Over half of U.S. homeowners hold COVID-era mortgages at sub-4% rates. How this lock-in is reshaping housing supply, MBS markets, and Fed policy in 2026.

Categories Federal Reserve & Rates Tags capital markets, federal reserve, fixed income, housing finance, mortgage market
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