Fed Rate-Cut Odds Hit 40% as Iran Peace Talks Ease Oil Fears
Money markets repriced Fed rate-cut odds from below 10% to 40% as US-Iran peace talk optimism sent oil prices lower. Here is what bond investors need to know.
interest rates
April CPI Surges 3.3%: What It Means for Rates and Stocks
April CPI rose 3.3% year-over-year with a 0.9% monthly spike—biggest jump since 2022. What it means for the Fed, bonds, and equities.
Kevin Warsh’s Fed Chair Bid Stalls — Markets Take Notice
Kevin Warsh’s expected Fed Chair confirmation hearing has been delayed. Here’s what the nomination snag means for bonds, the dollar, and equities.
The Fed’s Next Move Could Be a Rate Hike, Not a Cut
Traders now see a Fed rate hike as more likely than a cut. Here’s what Treasury yields, FedWatch data, and bond markets are pricing in for 2026.
March Jobs Report: Strong Payrolls Hold Treasury Yields Steady
March’s stronger-than-expected payrolls kept Treasury yields firm, pushing back rate cut timelines as the Fed navigates oil-driven inflation.
Fed Minutes: Rate Cut Still on Table Despite Iran War Inflation
April FOMC minutes reveal Fed officials still expect a rate cut in 2026, even as the Iran war keeps Brent crude above $120 and stokes inflation fears.
Fed Rate Cuts Return: What the Bond Market Is Pricing In
Iran ceasefire and solid March jobs data have revived rate cut hopes. Here’s how the bond market is repricing the Fed’s path in 2026.
The Iran War Just Killed the Spring Housing Market
Mortgage rates have climbed back above 6.5%, buyer confidence is in freefall, and America’s usually-reliable spring selling season is quietly falling apart. The Iran conflict isn’t just an oil story anymore.
The Market Bottom Isn’t About Iran. It’s About the Fed.
Everyone’s watching the Strait of Hormuz. The market’s real signal is hiding in the bond market. Here’s what actually tells you when stocks have found a floor.
Fed Rate Dilemma: Oil Shock, Iran War, and What It Means for Stocks
Oil markets are under pressure as Iran tensions escalate. Here’s how supply disruption risks are moving crude prices. Here’s what the data shows.