OpenAI Files Confidential S-1; ~$1T IPO Eyed for Q4

OpenAI confidentially filed a draft Form S-1 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on or around May 22, 2026, kicking off a process that bankers and reporters expect to land in public markets in the fourth quarter at a valuation between $852 billion and roughly $1 trillion, according to Fortune and Axios. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are reported to be the lead underwriters.

The move arrives a month after SpaceX flipped from confidential to public S-1 and listed plans to trade under the symbol SPCX, as we covered here. If the calendar holds, OpenAI and SpaceX will be the two largest U.S. IPOs ever attempted, both inside a single fall window — a setup with no real precedent in modern capital-markets history.

What we know about the filing

A confidential S-1, allowed under the JOBS Act and extended by the SEC in 2017 to all issuers, is a draft registration statement reviewed by SEC staff without immediate public disclosure. The full prospectus must be filed publicly on EDGAR at least 15 days before the issuer commences its roadshow under the SEC’s draft-registration procedures. Working back from a target Q4 2026 listing, the public S-1 would likely land in August or September.

OpenAI declined to confirm specific timing, telling Axios only that “as part of normal governance, we regularly evaluate a range of strategic options.” That phrasing is consistent with how late-stage pre-IPO issuers typically acknowledge a confidential filing without confirming it.

Item Reported detail
Filing type Confidential draft S-1 (DRS)
Filing date (reported) On or around May 22, 2026
Lead underwriters Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley
Listing target Q4 2026 (Labor Day–Thanksgiving window)
Current private valuation ~$852B (March 2026 funding)
IPO valuation range (reported) $852B – ~$1.0T
Issuer OpenAI Group PBC
Sources: Fortune, Axios, as of May 27, 2026.

The cap table the S-1 will finally reveal

OpenAI’s October 2025 restructuring is the foundation everything else sits on. The for-profit subsidiary was converted into a Delaware public benefit corporation called OpenAI Group PBC, while the original nonprofit was renamed the OpenAI Foundation. That foundation still controls the PBC’s board.

Per disclosures from Microsoft’s official blog, Fortune, and CNBC, the post-restructuring economic ownership is:

Holder Stake Implied value at $1T
Microsoft 27% ~$270B
OpenAI Foundation (nonprofit) 26% ~$260B
Employees and other investors 47% ~$470B
Source: Microsoft, Fortune, CNBC, as of October 28, 2025.

Microsoft’s stake was diluted from roughly 32.5% on an as-converted basis prior to the March 2026 mega-round that closed at an $852 billion post-money valuation. As part of the recapitalization, Microsoft retained access to OpenAI technology through 2032, including any system later certified as AGI by an independent panel.

The financial picture investors will be staring at

OpenAI’s revenue trajectory has accelerated faster than any software company in history. CFO Sarah Friar has confirmed roughly $13 billion of 2025 revenue (up from $6 billion in 2024 and $2 billion in 2023), and ARR has reportedly crossed $25 billion in early 2026 based on March press accounts. The S-1 will give investors the first audited view of those numbers.

OpenAI reported revenue, 2023–early 2026 Bar chart showing OpenAI annualized revenue rising from $2B in 2023 to roughly $25B in early 2026. OpenAI revenue / annualized run-rate ($B) 0 5 10 15 20 25 2023 $2B 2024 $6B 2025 $13B Q1 ’26 ARR ~$25B
Sources: SaaStr on CFO commentary; Sacra revenue tracker, as of May 2026.

Less glamorous: the company remains deeply unprofitable. Multiple outlets have reported Q1 2026 losses of roughly $1.22 per $1 of revenue, with cash consumed by training and capacity buildouts at hyperscaler-owned data centers. The S-1 will need to provide three things investors do not yet have:

  • GAAP financials. A full income statement, balance sheet, and cash-flow statement audited by an independent accounting firm — not investor-deck slide bullets.
  • Compute commitments. The dollar value and timing of multi-year compute purchase obligations with Microsoft, Oracle, and the consortium behind OpenAI’s planned Stargate facilities.
  • Customer concentration and unit economics. Especially the contribution of ChatGPT subscriptions versus API revenue, and gross margin progression on inference workloads.

Why the structure matters for public-market investors

OpenAI Group is a Delaware public benefit corporation, which means directors must consider a stated public-benefit purpose (broadly described in OpenAI’s filings as ensuring “AGI benefits all of humanity”) alongside shareholder interests. The PBC structure does not exempt the company from securities laws, but it does change the fiduciary calculus directors must perform — a fact that will be disclosed and litigated in the registration process.

Control sits with the nonprofit foundation, which retains board authority over the PBC. Public shareholders will own equity exposed to OpenAI’s economics but will not hold the levers of governance the way they would in a conventional C-corp IPO. Investors should expect detailed risk-factor language on this point.

The bottom line for capital markets

If OpenAI does ultimately list in Q4 2026 at anywhere near a trillion-dollar valuation, it will be the largest U.S. IPO ever — roughly 30 times the size of Visa’s $17.9 billion 2008 debut, which currently holds the record. Combined with SpaceX, the two listings could absorb more new-issue equity in a single quarter than any IPO window since 1999. How public markets price unaudited growth, governance carve-outs, and tens of billions in compute commitments will shape the entire AI capital structure for years.

Sources

Disclosure: This article was produced with AI assistance and reviewed before publication. It is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.

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