Treasury Yields Jump as Warsh’s Dot Plot Pencils a 2026 Hike
The Fed held rates 12-0 but its new dot plot now sees fed funds at 3.8% by year-end, above the current 3.5-3.75% band – a hawkish first move under Chair Warsh.
The Fed held rates 12-0 but its new dot plot now sees fed funds at 3.8% by year-end, above the current 3.5-3.75% band – a hawkish first move under Chair Warsh.
Treasury sells $24B in 5-year notes hours after the Fed decides June 17, then a 2y/5y/7y trio Jun 23-25 — ~$200B of supply in seven days.
The June 16-17 FOMC is Kevin Warsh’s first meeting with a fresh Summary of Economic Projections. Here’s what bond and credit markets are pricing.